Confidence Calibration Deck
You are here · Protocol 20
Shift briefing · Risk Decision Deck
The system reports confidence for several predictions, but its past confidence does not match its actual accuracy. Set action bands that reflect consequence.
Read before the shift. It tells you what is at stake, never how to do it.
What you practise
Use uncertainty and empirical performance to decide when to act, verify, or abstain.
- Calibration
- uncertainty
- error costs
- abstention
Experiment Change one thing, run it again, compare on evidence.
The facility for this shift
3 rooms, 4 stations, two hands.
- 01Outcome ArchiveOutcome archive
- 02Calibration RoomCalibration plot · Risk board
- 03Decision DeckDecision gate
Compromised Signal · sealed
Something in this shift will change, and the briefing will not tell you what. You find it from the evidence, or your after-action review shows you where it was.
How the shift is assessed
3 criteria · 0 to 6
Scored from what you did: the evidence you checked, the stations you operated, the artifacts you produced and the gates you passed. The criteria are revealed in your after-action review, not before.
Capabilities evidenced
- ReasonModels dependencies, constraints, causal paths, and trade-offs.In 22 of 48
- JudgmentChooses proportionate actions and knows when to verify, abstain, or escalate.In 27 of 48
- ResponsibilityProtects privacy, limits permissions, documents decisions, and blocks unsafe releases.In 23 of 48
Chamber II · The Operator
You set the direction. Tools do the work, and you test what they return.
Turn goals into workflows, allocate work, test outputs, retrieve sources, automate safely and make decisions under pressure.
Play Protocol 20 in first person, with the clock running.